A Factor Variance Decomposition Analysis of Cancer Mortality due to Temporal Shocks in Alcohol and Tobacco Consumption
Zahra N. Masih

Identifying the empirical response of cancer mortality to changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption has long been acknowledged as a critical area of preventative cancer strategy and public health policy. This is the first study of its kind that utilizes times series methods to decompose variations in forecasted shocks to cancer mortality into its most significant attributable factors. The analysis uses tobacco expenditure, alcohol expenditure, controlling for health expenditures and aggregate cancer data observed annually over an 80-year period for the US population. Results indicate alcohol has a more dominant effect on explaining cancer mortality regardless of time dimension. As a result, policies that have been previously emphasized toward mitigating tobacco consumption may prove prudent in addressing alcohol as a public health concern with respect to cancer mortality.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/ijhs.v9n1a1